The possibility of jet fuel shortages in Europe is becoming increasingly real, and the situation could escalate faster than many expect. Recent developments suggest that Europe may only have about six weeks’ worth of jet fuel left if current supply disruptions continue. This worrying outlook is largely tied to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the closure of a major shipping route that plays a crucial role in global fuel supply.

At the center of the issue is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and jet fuel is transported. For over six weeks now, this route has effectively been blocked by Iran, reportedly in response to military actions involving the United States and Israel. This disruption has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, causing jet fuel prices to surge and raising serious concerns about availability, especially in Europe.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which monitors global energy markets and advises multiple countries, has warned that Europe could soon face serious challenges if the situation does not improve. According to the agency, Europe has historically depended on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel imports. With that supply now largely cut off, the continent is scrambling to find alternatives.

One of the immediate responses has been to increase imports from other regions. Countries like the United States and Nigeria have stepped in to help fill the gap. In fact, exports of jet fuel from the US have risen sharply in recent weeks. However, even with this increase, experts say it may not be enough. The IEA estimates that, at best, these alternative sources could replace just over half of the lost supply from the Middle East.

This creates a significant risk. If Europe cannot replace at least 50% of its usual imports, there could be real, physical shortages of jet fuel at certain airports. This would likely lead to flight cancellations and reduced travel demand, especially during the busy summer months. Even in a more optimistic scenario, where up to 75% of the lost supply is replaced, the pressure could still build up, potentially causing disruptions later in the summer.

What makes the situation even more complicated is the interconnected nature of global energy markets. Other major fuel-exporting countries, such as India, China, and South Korea, also rely heavily on crude oil from the Middle East. This means they are facing similar challenges, limiting their ability to fully support Europe’s needs. In simple terms, the problem is not just regional—it is global.

Industry experts are already warning that shortages could occur even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon. This is because it takes time for supply chains to stabilize. Fuel shipments don’t arrive instantly; they can take several weeks to reach their destinations. As a result, even a quick resolution to the crisis may not prevent short-term disruptions.

There is also the issue of prioritization. Major international airports, such as those in large cities, are likely to receive fuel supplies first, while smaller airports could face more severe shortages. This uneven distribution could further complicate travel plans and create a ripple effect across the aviation industry.

Airlines are already feeling the financial impact of the crisis. Fuel is one of their biggest operating costs, often accounting for between 20% and 40% of total expenses. With prices rising sharply, many airlines have had to take emergency measures to manage costs. For example, some have increased ticket prices, while others are adjusting flight schedules to reduce fuel consumption.

The price of jet fuel in Europe has reached record levels, climbing dramatically compared to pre-crisis figures. This has added even more pressure on airlines, many of which are still recovering from previous economic challenges. Even companies that had taken steps to protect themselves from price increases—such as securing fuel at fixed rates in advance—are now facing unexpected costs.

Despite these concerns, European authorities have so far maintained that there is no immediate shortage of fuel. Officials have stated that crude oil supplies to refineries remain stable for now, and there is no urgent need to release emergency reserves. However, they have also acknowledged that the situation could change quickly if the disruption continues.

To stay ahead of the problem, energy and oil coordination groups within the European Union are meeting regularly to monitor developments. There are also plans to introduce new measures aimed at managing the crisis and ensuring supply stability in the coming weeks.

At the same time, industry organizations are urging policymakers to act quickly. Representatives from Europe’s airport sector have already warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, fuel shortages could become unavoidable. Their concern is that the current запас (supply buffer) will not last indefinitely, especially as travel demand increases during the summer season.

In summary, Europe is facing a potentially serious jet fuel crisis driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. While efforts are being made to source fuel from alternative suppliers, these measures may not fully offset the loss of Middle Eastern imports. If the situation persists, travelers could soon experience the effects through higher ticket prices, flight delays, or even cancellations.

The coming weeks will be critical. Much depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and how quickly global supply chains can adjust. Until then, both the aviation industry and governments will need to remain flexible and proactive to minimize the impact of what could become a major disruption to air travel.

Europe has 'maybe six weeks of jet fuel left', energy boss warns